Hurricane Season is Over

Both Atlantic and east Pacific hurricane seasons ended yesterday. The Atlantic was a quiet season, with only two major hurricanes, Bill and Fred, and not much in the way of damage at all. The East Pacific was much more active however, and the most powerful hurricane of the season was Rick, which reached 180mph wind speeds and a 905mb central pressure, making it the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the eastern Pacific. Fortunately it weakened to a tropical storm before hitting land, but it was still a very impressive storm. We'll see what 2010 brings.

All comments are more than welcome.

End of Hurricane Season Soon

Both Atlantic and east Pacific hurricane seasons end on November 30 - the day after tomorrow. The Atlantic was quiet this year, and no storms ever threatened Texas. I should do a season summary on November 30.

However, Rick in the Pacific was an amazing system, a Category 5 that eventually hit Mexico as a tropical storm. One of the strongest storms ever in the east Pacific.

Comments welcome.

Tropical Storm Fred forms in far eastern Atlantic

Very quick update tonight. Tropical Storm Fred has just formed near the Cape Verde islands. It is quite far south but is expected to be a fish-spinner anyway, and probably not become a hurricane. It's something to track nevertheless.

Tropical Storm Linda has also formed out in the eastern Pacific. No threat to land from that one either.

Fred on the horizon?

Invest 95L is gone, now just a naked swirl out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, torn apart by wind shear. However, a very impressive wave now known as Invest 96L has came off Africa and its convection at such an early stage is quite incredible. Right now we need to see whether this amazing convection persists or not. I give it an 80% chance of developing into our next tropical depression over the next few days; indeed I would not be surprised to see it develop into our next depression tomorrow.

There is also a disturbance way out in the eastern Pacific which also has a high chance of developing over the next few days.

More tomorrow.

Last advisory issued on Erika

Erika is now in the eastern Pacific, and has degenerated into a remnant low as it moves into high shear. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the system.

Jimena has also dissipated after causing damage in Baja California.

With all the systems we were tracking gone, we now look to the east, to a wave near the Cape Verde islands with a small chance (<30%) of developing into something over the next few days.

It looks like the Atlantic will turn out to be a fairly inactive season. 10 named storms in total, or around that, seems likely as of now.

We'll wait and see.

Jimena inland Baja California, Erika struggling to survive

Jimena made landfall this morning, but it missed Cabo San Lucas to the north. It was a Category 2 hurricane with 100mph winds, and has since weakened to a tropical storm inland. It has decoupled, it's low level center forecasted to move to the west into the Pacific and it's upper center forecasted to move to the northeast into mainland Mexico. Damage reports are still coming in, and we'll have more on that later.

Tropical Storm Erika has formed from Invest 94L in the Atlantic basin near the Leeward Islands. It is very poorly organized with multiple swirls. It'll have to reform it's main center under the circulation or turn into a trough and thus no longer be classified as a tropical cyclone. Even if it does survive for the next day or two, the mountains of Hispaniola which it is expected to interact with and increasing wind shear should cause it to dissipate within five days.

Sorry for the lack of updating recently - this one will be short as well. There is an extremely dangerous hurricane in the east Pacific right now off Mexico; Jimena is a Category 4/5 borderline system with winds around 155mph and it may have been stronger yesterday (when recon was not around to check it out). Jimena is expected to make landfall on Baja California shortly as a Category 4 hurricane, cross the Gulf of California and hit mainland Mexico, and then move into the United States as a remnant low pressure area. Arizona can expect some rains, but it is Mexico that will see the devastation and destruction typical of an intense hurricane.

Invest 94L near the Lesser Antilles is beginning to show signs of developing into a tropical depression, despite increasing shear. I give it a 80% chance of eventually becoming our next depression.

More later.

Tropical Storm Danny and Invest 94L

Danny has formed in the western Atlantic a few days ago from a tropical wave. It is currently located east of the Bahamas and looks as if it will mirror Bill's track to some degree. It is very disorganized, and I'm not seeing much banding or convection, and it's center is exposed. Winds are only around 45mph, and it may not even be a tropical storm any longer. Still, the environment is expected to become more favorable and it may strengthen over the next day or two, but then shear is expected to rise so beyond 48 hours I don't see much intensification and it's expected to become extratropical shortly thereafter. It's unlikely right now Danny will become a hurricane.

Still, a tropical storm watch is up for parts of North Carolina, and Danny may brush Cape Cod before it makes its expected landfall on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. It shouldn't be as bad as Bill for the Canadian Maritimes however.

We're also watching Invest 94L in the eastern Atlantic near Cape Verde. I give it a 60% chance of developing into a depression over the next few days. It may track further west too (the dynamical models indicate the high pressure ridge to its north will build), so it's definitely one to watch.

Please comment.

Bill extratropical, Ignacio in the Pacific, Invest 92L developing

Quick update tonight.

Bill recurved north, missing Bermuda, New England and Nova Scotia, weakening as it went. It hit Newfoundland earlier today as a Category 1 storm, and has caused one death (a 7-year-old child) due to it's strong surf.

Now we have another disturbance to track in the Atlantic, Invest 92L near the Leeward Islands which has a medium (30-50%) chance of developing according to the NHC. We'll watch that one closely.

We also have Tropical Storm Ignacio in the eastern Pacific. It developed very recently from a depression, but is a fish-spinner so no threat to land from that one.

Keep checking back at explosivedeepening.net for the latest on tropical weather!

Category 4 Hurricane Bill churning out in the open Atlantic

Bill has strengthened rapidly into a potentially dangerous Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Maximum sustained winds are right now around 135mph, with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is 945mb.

Bill is currently well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands and fortunately there's no chance of it hitting there. However, some high surf can be expected in the islands of the Caribbean as this powerful cyclone passes to the north. Bill looks very impressive on satellite imagery; a classic Cape Verde hurricane taking a typical recurving path. Right now Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes really want to watch out for Bill, as the storm is expected to pass near or make a direct hit on either or both locations. It is unlikely to impact in the U.S. in any major way.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic nothing of note is going on, so after Bill we may have a quiet time for a little while. Remember the peak of Atlantic season is mid-September. In an El Nino year like this one, the season will probably shut down quick - it's very possible we won't get any named storms after September.

Any comments are more than welcome.

Category 2 Hurricane Bill moving west-northwest, Ana and Claudette dissipate

Quick update tonight.

Bill has strengthened into a hurricane, and quite a powerful one at that, with 100mph sustained winds, making it a Category 2 storm. It is currently moving west-northwest and is then expected to turn further north. Recently the models have begun to shift west indicating Bill will miss the weakness in the high pressure ridge to its north. However, a trough near the East Coast should ensure recurvature at some point. Bill is far enough west and south to make it likely it will affect land in some way, whether that be Bermuda, the U.S. Northeast or the Canadian Maritimes is of course not certain. However all of these places have to watch out for Bill, as it is likely to become a major hurricane tomorrow. (Some of the models even have it near Category 5 status while out at sea). It is also a large hurricane - tropical storm force winds extend 150 miles out from the center.

Ana has degenerated into an open wave as expected, but it will still cause some bad weather for Hispaniola. This time it is likely gone for good.

Claudette made landfall on the Florida panhandle last night and quickly weakened. Its last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center a while ago. Its remnants could still cause some rain and wind however as it moves inland.

Guillermo has moved into the Central Pacific and has weakened to a tropical storm.

More later.

Ana dying, Bill strengthening, Claudette striking land

Turned out I was wrong last night. Invest 91L quickly developed into a tropical depression and then Tropical Storm Claudette. It currently has 50mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 1008mb, and is very close to making landfall on the Florida panhandle. (Should do so tonight). It is currently located 25 miles west of Panama City.

It is beginning to look a bit ragged though ("This thing is beginning to look pathetic" according to Jim Cantore), and it's center became exposed for a while a bit back. Convection remains mostly on the eastern side, and Claudette is very small. A very small portion of the beach is to see tropical storm winds. So overall some nasty weather, a bit of rain and wind, but not much more, for the Florida panhandle.

Ana has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves over the Leeward Islands. Convection is bursting a bit now, but it doesn't seem to have much of a closed circulation, and indeed it may be declared a tropical wave tomorrow. Very few dynamical models indicate any strengthening whatsoever. Even if Ana somehow makes a comeback, which is incredibly unlikely, then it's probable that Hispaniola and it's mountains will finish off the job and shred what's left of Ana.

Bill is much better organized now, very close to hurricane strength, and is huge as well. (TS winds up to 140 miles from the center). I'm expecting a hurricane with an eye tomorrow morning and a Category 3 hurricane by the end of the day, and maybe further intensification after that. Bill is accelerating as well in it's forward motion, so it just might miss the weakness in the high pressure ridge to it's north. For this reason, the Caribbean islands still want to watch it. Bermuda, Northeastern U.S. and ultimately Atlantic Canada may be threatened by Bill eventually too. It's not set in stone Bill will be a fish-spinner.

Ana, Bill, 91L, Guillermo and another wave off Africa

The tropics are definitely heating up right now. Tropical Depression #2 regenerated and strengthened into Tropical Storm Ana, the first named cyclone of the Atlantic season. It is currently having some problems. Although shear is light, it is racing to the west so fast that it's low-level circulation is beginning to outrun the convection. Thus it is unlikely to strengthen too much. It is expected to move over the Leeward Islands on Monday and then cross Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba before either moving into the western Gulf of Mexico or into Florida. I personally think it won't be in good enough shape to survive an encounter with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, and so dissipation is quite possible.;

Tropical Depression #3 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Bill, and currently has 40mph winds and a 1004mb central pressure (estimated). Bill is quite far south and it is huge, and now it's generating plenty of convection near it's inner core too, something it had not done until recently. The models indicate it could become a powerful Category 3+ hurricane too in about five days time. The models also forecast Bill to recurve and it may become a fish-spinner, missing the Lesser Antilles to the north and spinning out into the deep ocean. That would be unusual for August though, especially considering the fact Bill is quite deep in the tropics, and I'd be surprised if it didn't hit the islands of the Caribbean. We have to watch Bill very closely.

Invest 91L has developed off Florida in the western Gulf. Right now it's not too likely to become much. I'm giving it a 20% chance of developing into a depression. I think the more likely candidate for tropical development is another wave which has emerged off the coast of Africa. This one probably won't develop as quickly as Bill if it does at all but it is something to watch as it may go further south than Bill.

Guillermo in the eastern Pacific briefly became a Category 3 hurricane but has since weakened. It's expected to pass well north of Hawaii too so it's no longer much of a threat.

More later.

Tropical Depression #2 dissipating, Tropical Depression #3 on the way?

My apologies for the sporadic updating. Now that the Atlantic is heating up in a major way you can expect much more frequent updates.

Tropical Depression #2 formed in the far eastern Atlantic but a combination of dry, stable air to it's north and moderate wind shear weakened the system and the National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on the system just a few hours ago. It has decayed into a remnant low pressure area and regeneration is not expected.

There's also another disturbance near Hispaniola and the Bahamas but it doesn't look like it will develop.

Of much more interest is Invest 90L, a large tropical wave with plenty of convection in it's outer bands near the Cape Verde islands. This has a high chance (I estimate around 90%) of developing into our next depression. The computer models forecast it not to be impacted as severely by the dry air as TD#2, and in fact they are hinting it may become a major hurricane. It's forecasted to head towards the Leeward Islands but it's still a long way off and we have plenty of time to track it.

Felicia in the east Pacific dissipated just as it hit Hawaii. It caused no real damage there. It was stripped of convection by shear by the time it arrived.

Another storm, Guillermo, has formed in the Pacific and it may also impact Hawaii in about a week. It could easily intensify into a hurricane so we'll watch that one closely.

I expect to post a much more detailed blog post tomorrow morning. Comments are more than welcome. : - )

Twin storms in the Pacific, Quiet Atlantic

First of all, sorry for the long absence. This was due to several internet problems. Fortunately, the Atlantic basin has remained mostly quiet, and we still have had no named storm. It has been 17 years since we've had to wait this long for our first named storm, and with the computer models forecasting no development in the Atlantic for a while we may have to wait even longer before Tropical Storm Ana finally arrives on the scene. The inactivity of the Atlantic can be attributed to current El Nino conditions, which typically results in less storms in the Atlantic and more in the Pacific. The Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and the western coast of Africa is full of dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert. Anything which tried to develop there right now would be "choked" out of existence very quickly.

Still, I'm expecting at least one storm to develop in the Atlantic before the end of August, and a total of between 10 and 13 named storms is likely this year in the Atlantic basin.

In the East Pacific there are two storms, very close to each other. One is Enrique, which is a tropical storm that isn't likely to amount to much, although it seems to be trying to develop an eyewall. Intensification is being limited by Felicia, to it's southwest, which has impressively strengthened overnight and has powered up to a major hurricane. Dvorak satellite estimates indicate it is now a Category 4 hurricane packing sustained winds of 125 knots (145 mph) with a central pressure of 941mb. Felicia now has a "pinwheel eye" (named such due to the appearance of clouds in it's eye - it's a sign of a powerful hurricane), but it is beginning to lose some convection in it's northwestern quadrant, and it will be moving into cooler waters tonight as it tracks northwest and eventually west, and so gradual weakening is expected over the coming days. What's interesting is that it is expected to impact Hawaii in some form later on, likely in five or six days time. By this time, however, it is forecasted to be a tropical depression. Still, the islands may get some bad weather from this system.

More later.

More on 93L...

Invest 93L is less organized this morning as it's low-level circulation center (separated from what little convection remains) moves across the Yucatan Peninsula. Once it moves west to northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico wind shear is expected to increase, making it less likely for 93L to even become a tropical depression, let alone a tropical storm or weak hurricane. I give it a 5-10% chance of development.

There are some waves coming off Africa (as is typical). The GFS model has been developing a closed low out of one of these though no chance of that anymore. Still, it's an indicator that the Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and the western coast of Africa is becoming more favorable for development of tropical systems.

Invest 93L in the western Caribbean

There is currently a disturbance, designated Invest 93L, in the western Caribbean Sea off the Yucatan Peninsula that is threatening to develop into a tropical cyclone. If it survives it's forecasted journey across the Yucatan then it has a good chance of becoming Ana, the first named storm of the Atlantic season. The SHIPS model has it become a 70mph strong tropical storm.

Although initially predicted to turn northeast towards Florida now it is expected that 93L will move more to the south and west into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A high pressure area will likely prevent anything from reaching Texas.

More later.

Andres gone, Bay of Campeche disturbance gone, chance of rain for Texas gone

Andres intensified to a hurricane and brushed Mexico. Mexico received gale-force winds, and 1 person drowned. However, strong wind shear, stable air and cooler waters resulted in the dissipation of Andres today. The last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center hours ago.

The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche we have been tracking is no longer showing any signs of developing into a tropical cyclone, not that it ever did, and the rain is moving into Mexico so no chance for rain from that system.

We'll keep watch.

Comments welcome.

Andres steadily strengthening, disturbance in Bay of Campeche, and will Texas get any rain?

Tropical Storm Andres is steadily intensifying, now with winds of 65mph, as it wobbles between a more westerly and more northerly direction, on a general course towards the southwestern coast of Mexico. It may also impact Baja California before heading west out to sea and dissipating. The SHIPS model indicates close to 20 knots of wind shear that is expected to environ Andres. Interaction with land (indeed a possible if not probable landfall on the Mexican coast) is also an issue. Ergo, Andres will not likely intensify beyond Category 1 hurricane status.

There is also some convective debris scattered over the Bay of Campeche; a disorganized disturbance which has a small chance (around 10% in my estimation) of becoming the Atlantic basin's second tropical depression. It currently has a mid-level circulation but not much of a surface one to speak of, a requirement for development into a tropical cyclone. This might bring south Texas some rain and relief from the heat, but it's likely the rain will be around the coast and will not reach Houston or penetrate inland.

Any comments are more than welcome.

Tropical Storm Andres

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. My latest blog entry didn't post for some reason.

Tropical Depression #1-E never became a tropical storm and didn't provide Texas some relief from the heat either. However, another tropical disturbance has formed into Tropical Storm Andres. It is currently located about 120 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with sustained winds of 50mph and a central pressure of 997mb (estimated). Shear is pretty low, and Andres looks quite impressive on satellite imagery. I give it a 60% chance of becoming a marginal hurricane over the next few days. It is expected to brush and possibly directly strike Mexico, so tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are up. Baja California may also be impacted by Andres before it turns east out to sea and dissipates.

In the Atlantic basin there's nothing going on which looks as if it might develop into a tropical cyclone, so we may easily see our first named storm (Ana) in July or August this year. 2009 Atlantic season may be less active than what we've seen in other years. SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) are quite low and right now it would seem an El Nino is likely to develop in the coming months. This means a less busy Atlantic season and a more busy East Pacific season, although the East Pacific has had a very slow start. (Andres is the latest named storm formation since reliable Pacific Hurricane Season records began in the 1970s.)

Any comments are more than welcome.

Tropical Depression #1-E forms in the East Pacific (Please Comment!)

The first tropical depression of the East Pacific Hurricane Season has just formed this morning., about 370 miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. It is expected to move north and eventually north-northeast and strike the Mexican coast late Friday or early Saturday. It has time enough to intensify before then, and it is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. If this occurs, then 2009 will beat 1994 for the latest naming of the first tropical cyclone of the season. (In 1994, the first storm was named early on June 19, here Tropical Depression #1-E is expected to become a named storm on the same day but several hours later).

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the Pacific Coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo southward to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marias. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within the next 36 hours.

It has been very hot here in Texas. We are seeing temperatures typical of July and August yet it is only June. Will the remnants of Tropical Depression #1-E bring any rain? We'll see. Right now that doesn't seem very likely.

There is also another disturbance in the East Pacific southwest of where TD#1-E is at. Right now the National Hurricane Center doesn't think it will do much, but it has a chance of developing into a tropical depression.

More later.

Bolivar Today

I went to Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula recently and severe damage can still be seen, particularly on the Bolivar, even now, months after the storm hit land. I took 50 pictures and a video of the damage on the Bolivar and have uploaded them to the site, along with a brief account of my trip. To see the amazing damage Ike inflicted still visible even today, click here.

Invest 92L, the non-tropical system in the far northeast Atlantic, is gone now and the tropics are currently quiet.

ExplosiveDeepening will closely watch anything showing signs of developing into a tropical cyclone.

All comments will be appreciated.

Second day of hurricane season, non-tropical system near Azores

Hurricane season began yesterday and today there is a non-tropical system way out in the northeast Atlantic near the Azores. It's not likely to develop; waters are much too cool for one thing. I give it a less than 10% chance of becoming anything.

I had some problems with the Hurricane Ike damage video I was planning uploading today. Hopefully I'll have it up tomorrow along with a bunch of pictures and an article detailing my trip to the Bolivar Peninsula and what I saw.

Any comments will be appreciated.

June 1st, 2009

Please Comment!

Today is June 1st, the first day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season and marking its beginning.

Already we have seen a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean (Tropical Depression #1) and it is expected that between 8 and 17 more will form before the season ends on November 30th. ExplosiveDeepening is currently forecasting 14 named storms to form during the next six months in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico, with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 attaining Category 3 or greater status with wind speeds of at least 115mph.

To show a hurricane's power and it's long-lasting effects, I am planning to upload an article tomorrow about my visit to Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula earlier this year, with a video and multiple pictures showing the damage wrought by Hurricane Ike, over six months after the event. Look for it on the ExplosiveDeepening blog and the "About Hurricanes" page.

I am expecting to post another blog entry tomorrow along with the Hurricane Ike damage article and video, detailing what can be expected for both the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons and other relevant information.

Comments welcome.

Last advisory issued on Tropical Depression #1

Sorry for the lack of updates over the past couple of days.

Tropical Depression #1 never did organize enough to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ana (the first time since 2000 that the season's first depression didn't become a named storm), and after racing northeast, not affecting any land areas, it has lost it's tropical characteristics and the National Hurricane Center will no longer track this system.

Tropical Depression #1 and Invest 90L have proved to be interesting storms to track and the off-season is now finished, even if it's still a few days to go until June 1st.

There's nothing else of interest right now in the Atlantic or East Pacific basins but we'll keep a close watch on the tropics.

Any comments will be appreciated.

Pre-season Tropical Depression #1 forms off the East Coast

Very quick update. Invest 91L has formed into Tropical Depression #1 east of the Carolinas over the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are 35mph. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Ana later today before moving northeast and dissipating. It is not expected to impact land in any way.

More later.

Invest 91L off the Outer Banks. Will it develop? Please Comment!

Invest 91L is now centered about 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and is moving north at 10-15mph. It should move more to the northeast tomorrow, but it's projected path means coastal North Carolina may still receive some bad weather with showers later today.

91L has a nice circulation but lacks much convection near or over the center, and it does need to cope with progressively colder waters (too cold to support tropical/subtropical development by tomorrow afternoon) and moderate wind shear. Still, it does have a chance of forming into something (although it will have to organize significantly within 24 hours to do so), probably subtropical rather than tropical, and probably a depression (winds less than 35 knots) rather than a storm (winds greater than 35 knots). I'm giving it a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression within the next 24 hours. One thing to mention is that the National Hurricane Center has finally issued a special tropical weather outlook for this system, and will issue another one at 1PM, and they are sending recon to check it out.

The fact that we've had two areas of interest (90L and 91L), one of which very nearly became the first named storm of the season (Ana), in the Atlantic so far (and Atlantic hurricane season is still yet to officially start) may be of some significance. However, whether this is a sign of things to come or not is up for debate.

The GFS forecast model is predicting a closed surface low forming in the Gulf of Mexico in a few days from now, and moving over Florida bringing yet more rain to the already drenched state. However, it has been noted that GFS is having some problems so this is likely a false alarm, and it's even more likely that this won't have a chance of becoming anything tropical. To check out the latest model runs (including GFS), click here.

By the way, if explosivedeepening.com is down in the near future, then try explosivedeepening.net, a mirror site.

You are more than welcome to click the Comments link to post comments, news items etc. All comments are moderated before being put up on the Blog.

Invest 91L update

Not too much has changed with Invest 91L, the disturbance south of North Carolina over the western Atlantic. Convection is pretty shallow right now, however there's a few factors, including the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in 91L's projected path, which could favor development into a subtropical or even tropical cyclone, although the latter especially is unlikely. Waters are just too cold in the area to be very favorable for formation; if it was July then this would be of real concern.

Low level convergence is improving, so what we need to watch is for more and deeper convection to develop near the center. There are some indications this will happen, but as of now it's less likely this will become much of anything. (Pressure has been rising since earlier today). 91L has only about 24 hours before it accelerates to the north-northeast and thus has no chances of developing.

As for what impacts this system will have on the Carolinas, the simple answer is probably not much. Any bad weather there will more likely be coming from the pressure gradient between this disturbance and the surrounding area and a frontal system, not from 91L itself. The Outer Banks can expect high surf, some wind (possibly approaching 30mph), and rain, mostly in the form of showers, not heavy thunderstorms.

Regardless of whether we see a tropical/subtropical depression/storm, the fact that we have seen two disturbances designated as an area of interest by the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic so far this year is quite significant.

By the way, if you find explosivedeepening.com down in the near future, you can go to explosivedeepening.net, a mirror site.

Any comments are more than welcome.

Disturbance off the East Coast, disaster in India and Bangladesh, and upcoming mirror site

This is becoming quite an active month of May!



Another disturbance has formed off the U.S. East Coast and has been designated Invest 91L. 91L is currently near North Carolina and indeed may impact there later on. It looks fairly well organized with a mid-level rotation but not much activity down at the surface (which is required for tropical/subtropical development) that I can see, although there are some indications a surface low may be forming. It is over cool waters, probably too cold for it to become a purely tropical system although slow development into a subtropical depression or storm over the next few days is possible as it moves into warmer waters over the Gulf Stream. Also a thing to note is the majority of it's convection is to the north and northwest of the center, and thus over warmer waters. As of now I'm giving it a 20% chance of developing.

The National Hurricane Center doesn't seem impressed with this disturbance - no special tropical weather outlook has been issued so far.

ExplosiveDeepening does not track tropical systems outside of the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, but I thought I should mention that there has been at least 120 people killed in India and Bangladesh from Cyclone Aila. Aila made landfall as a weak Category 1 or strong tropical storm yet mostly due to the poor preparations and overpopulation in those countries there were still many casualties and even more people injured or made homeless.

By the way, if you find explosivedeepening.com down in the near future, you can go to explosivedeepening.net, a mirror site.

Any comments are more than welcome.

All is quiet for now

The large extratropical cyclone and assoiciated surface low we were tracking was once again designated Invest 90L, and yesterday moved ashore near the Mississippi/Alabama border. However, before landfall it did improve considerably, with squalls near it's center and strong winds. Indeed it is possible it became an unnamed tropical or subtropical storm before it made landfall. Regardless, it did bring heavy rains to Florida and strong winds to the northern Gulf Coast.

There has also been a disturbance in the east Pacific, but the National Hurricane Center no longer believes it has a chance of developing, so for now at least, the tropics are quiet.

Atlantic Hurricane Season will officially begin on June 1 and end on November 30. Pacific Hurricane Season began on May 15 and will end on November 30.

Any comments are more than welcome.

Low pressure area in the Gulf; will it develop? (Please Comment)

Invest 90L is long gone and a non-issue, but we continue to closely watch a low pressure area now over the east-central Gulf of Mexico which is showing some signs of organization. It looked unimpressive yesterday but convection is now developing well east of the exposed low-level circulation center. This disturbance has been drenching Florida lately, with up to 23" of rain being dumped in some areas over the last four days.

The Gulf low needs to overcome some problems if it is to acquire tropical characteristics. Wind shear in the area is a moderate 20 knots, which is enough to allow further development although it is certainly not the best conditions for intensification, but what will likely inhibit strengthening more is the large amounts of dry, cool air in the region. Still, with SSTs (sea surface temperatures) fairly high and wind shear forecasted to decrease over the next few days, it is very possible this system will become a tropical or subtropical depression. (I'm giving it a 50% chance).

Landfall on Louisiana or Texas over the weekend is likely, regardless of formation into a tropical/subtropical cyclone.

Any comments are more than welcome.

Watching tropical disturbances near Florida (PLEASE COMMENT!)

East Pacific Hurricane Season has already begun; it started on Friday and will continue until November 30. However, although the start of Atlantic Hurricane Season is still several days away, we are already watching two systems, both near Florida, which have the potential to develop into a tropical or subtropical depression. One is over the Florida Keys, and the other is over the south-central Bahamas, east of Florida.

The second was designated Invest 90L (i.e., an area of investigation) yesterday and was given a 30% chance of developing, however today it is less organized and the National Hurricane Center no longer believes it will form into anything. Right now it would seem 90L will be absorbed by the other system over the Florida Keys, which is slowly organizing and may be designated Invest 91L fairly shortly, and perhaps eventually become a tropical cyclone once it's moved westwards over the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is strong over both lows, however two computer models predict wind shear will lessen over the northern Gulf allowing the Florida Keys disturbance to develop further. I give it a 30% chance of becoming a rare pre-season tropical or subtropical depression.

Regardless of formation, the Florida Keys low may impact Texas over the weekend, which is why we will want to watch it's progress closely.

Any comments are more than welcome.

Hurricane Season Approaching (Please Comment!)

We are getting ready for the next hurricane season which is rapidly approaching. We only track systems in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or Pacific Ocean east of the International Date Line, as only in these areas does a tropical system pose a threat to Texas.

East Pacific Hurricane Season starts on May 15, and Atlantic Hurricane Season starts on June 1. I'm expecting an early start to what I expect to be an active Atlantic season, with around 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, although right now I'm not expecting a season quite as bad as the 2008 season, which featured the costliest hurricane in Texas history (Ike). 2008 was quite unusual as many systems hit Texas or nearby.

Right now we don't have an El Nino or a La Nina; conditions are neutral right now. (El Nino is a warming of Pacific waters which results in less activity in the Atlantic, La Nina is a cooling of Pacific waters resulting in a more active season.) However, this doesn't mean this season won't be active. Far from it. In fact, 2008 was neutral and 2004 was mostly neutral with a brief, weak El Nino during August, yet both of these seasons featured many intense, devastating hurricanes. And, of course, even if 2009 proves to be overall an inactive season that doesn't mean it won't be long remembered as featuring a single major storm which happened to hit a populated area and caused massive damage. Hurricane Andrew, for example, existed in an otherwise very quiet Atlantic hurricane season.

Typically, hurricanes and tropical storms in the East Pacific don't affect Texas and instead head out to sea. However, it isn't that uncommon for remnants of Pacific storms to move over Texas, and these systems can drop a lot of rain and sometimes can cause some slight damage.

And if you reading this, PLEASE COMMENT!