We are getting ready for the next hurricane season which is rapidly approaching. We only track systems in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or Pacific Ocean east of the International Date Line, as only in these areas does a tropical system pose a threat to Texas.
East Pacific Hurricane Season starts on May 15, and Atlantic Hurricane Season starts on June 1. I'm expecting an early start to what I expect to be an active Atlantic season, with around 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major (Category 3+) hurricanes, although right now I'm not expecting a season quite as bad as the 2008 season, which featured the costliest hurricane in Texas history (Ike). 2008 was quite unusual as many systems hit Texas or nearby.
Right now we don't have an El Nino or a La Nina; conditions are neutral right now. (El Nino is a warming of Pacific waters which results in less activity in the Atlantic, La Nina is a cooling of Pacific waters resulting in a more active season.) However, this doesn't mean this season won't be active. Far from it. In fact, 2008 was neutral and 2004 was mostly neutral with a brief, weak El Nino during August, yet both of these seasons featured many intense, devastating hurricanes. And, of course, even if 2009 proves to be overall an inactive season that doesn't mean it won't be long remembered as featuring a single major storm which happened to hit a populated area and caused massive damage. Hurricane Andrew, for example, existed in an otherwise very quiet Atlantic hurricane season.
Typically, hurricanes and tropical storms in the East Pacific don't affect Texas and instead head out to sea. However, it isn't that uncommon for remnants of Pacific storms to move over Texas, and these systems can drop a lot of rain and sometimes can cause some slight damage.
And if you reading this, PLEASE COMMENT!
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Even though ENSO so far has been neutral this year, I still expect a reasonably busy Atlantic season, taking into account overall conditions are worsening due to global warming. I think if everything was "graphed out" you would see a gradual incline which may one day rocket off the scale in years to come. I predict for this year we will have 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 of which will be intense. I think Texas will be hit at least twice.
ReplyDelete- Christine
Coming from Texas, I don't personally feel too threatened by what I see coming this year, going by historical facts, when the season begins, as it is neutral ENSO, we will likely have less damaging storms. This however may change. I predict the storms coming from the Atlantic will typically affect the more southern places such as the Lesser Antilles, Jamaica and the Gulf of Mexico, as opposed to where I live in Texas.
ReplyDelete- Sarah