Invest 91L is now centered about 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and is moving north at 10-15mph. It should move more to the northeast tomorrow, but it's projected path means coastal North Carolina may still receive some bad weather with showers later today.
91L has a nice circulation but lacks much convection near or over the center, and it does need to cope with progressively colder waters (too cold to support tropical/subtropical development by tomorrow afternoon) and moderate wind shear. Still, it does have a chance of forming into something (although it will have to organize significantly within 24 hours to do so), probably subtropical rather than tropical, and probably a depression (winds less than 35 knots) rather than a storm (winds greater than 35 knots). I'm giving it a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression within the next 24 hours. One thing to mention is that the National Hurricane Center has finally issued a special tropical weather outlook for this system, and will issue another one at 1PM, and they are sending recon to check it out.
The fact that we've had two areas of interest (90L and 91L), one of which very nearly became the first named storm of the season (Ana), in the Atlantic so far (and Atlantic hurricane season is still yet to officially start) may be of some significance. However, whether this is a sign of things to come or not is up for debate.
The GFS forecast model is predicting a closed surface low forming in the Gulf of Mexico in a few days from now, and moving over Florida bringing yet more rain to the already drenched state. However, it has been noted that GFS is having some problems so this is likely a false alarm, and it's even more likely that this won't have a chance of becoming anything tropical. To check out the latest model runs (including GFS), click here.
By the way, if explosivedeepening.com is down in the near future, then try explosivedeepening.net, a mirror site.
You are more than welcome to click the Comments link to post comments, news items etc. All comments are moderated before being put up on the Blog.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Put your comments here. They will be posted after moderation.