Invest 91L update

Not too much has changed with Invest 91L, the disturbance south of North Carolina over the western Atlantic. Convection is pretty shallow right now, however there's a few factors, including the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in 91L's projected path, which could favor development into a subtropical or even tropical cyclone, although the latter especially is unlikely. Waters are just too cold in the area to be very favorable for formation; if it was July then this would be of real concern.

Low level convergence is improving, so what we need to watch is for more and deeper convection to develop near the center. There are some indications this will happen, but as of now it's less likely this will become much of anything. (Pressure has been rising since earlier today). 91L has only about 24 hours before it accelerates to the north-northeast and thus has no chances of developing.

As for what impacts this system will have on the Carolinas, the simple answer is probably not much. Any bad weather there will more likely be coming from the pressure gradient between this disturbance and the surrounding area and a frontal system, not from 91L itself. The Outer Banks can expect high surf, some wind (possibly approaching 30mph), and rain, mostly in the form of showers, not heavy thunderstorms.

Regardless of whether we see a tropical/subtropical depression/storm, the fact that we have seen two disturbances designated as an area of interest by the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic so far this year is quite significant.

By the way, if you find explosivedeepening.com down in the near future, you can go to explosivedeepening.net, a mirror site.

Any comments are more than welcome.