Invest 90L is long gone and a non-issue, but we continue to closely watch a low pressure area now over the east-central Gulf of Mexico which is showing some signs of organization. It looked unimpressive yesterday but convection is now developing well east of the exposed low-level circulation center. This disturbance has been drenching Florida lately, with up to 23" of rain being dumped in some areas over the last four days.
The Gulf low needs to overcome some problems if it is to acquire tropical characteristics. Wind shear in the area is a moderate 20 knots, which is enough to allow further development although it is certainly not the best conditions for intensification, but what will likely inhibit strengthening more is the large amounts of dry, cool air in the region. Still, with SSTs (sea surface temperatures) fairly high and wind shear forecasted to decrease over the next few days, it is very possible this system will become a tropical or subtropical depression. (I'm giving it a 50% chance).
Landfall on Louisiana or Texas over the weekend is likely, regardless of formation into a tropical/subtropical cyclone.
Any comments are more than welcome.
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