East Pacific Hurricane Season has already begun; it started on Friday and will continue until November 30. However, although the start of Atlantic Hurricane Season is still several days away, we are already watching two systems, both near Florida, which have the potential to develop into a tropical or subtropical depression. One is over the Florida Keys, and the other is over the south-central Bahamas, east of Florida.
The second was designated Invest 90L (i.e., an area of investigation) yesterday and was given a 30% chance of developing, however today it is less organized and the National Hurricane Center no longer believes it will form into anything. Right now it would seem 90L will be absorbed by the other system over the Florida Keys, which is slowly organizing and may be designated Invest 91L fairly shortly, and perhaps eventually become a tropical cyclone once it's moved westwards over the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is strong over both lows, however two computer models predict wind shear will lessen over the northern Gulf allowing the Florida Keys disturbance to develop further. I give it a 30% chance of becoming a rare pre-season tropical or subtropical depression.
Regardless of formation, the Florida Keys low may impact Texas over the weekend, which is why we will want to watch it's progress closely.
Any comments are more than welcome.
This seems early in the year for a tropical storm. How likely is it that this pre-season storm will hit the Texas coast?
ReplyDeleteAre pre season storms any indicator of a busy season?
ReplyDelete"This seems early in the year for a tropical storm."
ReplyDeleteIn recent years there have been more and more pre-season and post-season tropical/subtropical systems, which is certainly very abnormal.
"How likely is it that this pre-season storm will hit the Texas coast?"
I'd say it's about a 40% chance that the disturbance currently near the Florida Keys (not former Invest 90L, which is no longer an area for investigation) will hit the Texas coast, a 45% chance it will hit Louisiana and a 15% chance it will hit somewhere else entirely.
"Are pre season storms any indicator of a busy season?"
They are something of an indicator, yes; certainly several recent active Atlantic seasons have featured pre-season storms. However, it is not uncommon for pre-season storms to develop in a year which ends up featuring an overall quiet season.
Thanks for the comments!