More on 93L...

Invest 93L is less organized this morning as it's low-level circulation center (separated from what little convection remains) moves across the Yucatan Peninsula. Once it moves west to northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico wind shear is expected to increase, making it less likely for 93L to even become a tropical depression, let alone a tropical storm or weak hurricane. I give it a 5-10% chance of development.

There are some waves coming off Africa (as is typical). The GFS model has been developing a closed low out of one of these though no chance of that anymore. Still, it's an indicator that the Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and the western coast of Africa is becoming more favorable for development of tropical systems.

Invest 93L in the western Caribbean

There is currently a disturbance, designated Invest 93L, in the western Caribbean Sea off the Yucatan Peninsula that is threatening to develop into a tropical cyclone. If it survives it's forecasted journey across the Yucatan then it has a good chance of becoming Ana, the first named storm of the Atlantic season. The SHIPS model has it become a 70mph strong tropical storm.

Although initially predicted to turn northeast towards Florida now it is expected that 93L will move more to the south and west into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A high pressure area will likely prevent anything from reaching Texas.

More later.

Andres gone, Bay of Campeche disturbance gone, chance of rain for Texas gone

Andres intensified to a hurricane and brushed Mexico. Mexico received gale-force winds, and 1 person drowned. However, strong wind shear, stable air and cooler waters resulted in the dissipation of Andres today. The last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center hours ago.

The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche we have been tracking is no longer showing any signs of developing into a tropical cyclone, not that it ever did, and the rain is moving into Mexico so no chance for rain from that system.

We'll keep watch.

Comments welcome.

Andres steadily strengthening, disturbance in Bay of Campeche, and will Texas get any rain?

Tropical Storm Andres is steadily intensifying, now with winds of 65mph, as it wobbles between a more westerly and more northerly direction, on a general course towards the southwestern coast of Mexico. It may also impact Baja California before heading west out to sea and dissipating. The SHIPS model indicates close to 20 knots of wind shear that is expected to environ Andres. Interaction with land (indeed a possible if not probable landfall on the Mexican coast) is also an issue. Ergo, Andres will not likely intensify beyond Category 1 hurricane status.

There is also some convective debris scattered over the Bay of Campeche; a disorganized disturbance which has a small chance (around 10% in my estimation) of becoming the Atlantic basin's second tropical depression. It currently has a mid-level circulation but not much of a surface one to speak of, a requirement for development into a tropical cyclone. This might bring south Texas some rain and relief from the heat, but it's likely the rain will be around the coast and will not reach Houston or penetrate inland.

Any comments are more than welcome.

Tropical Storm Andres

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. My latest blog entry didn't post for some reason.

Tropical Depression #1-E never became a tropical storm and didn't provide Texas some relief from the heat either. However, another tropical disturbance has formed into Tropical Storm Andres. It is currently located about 120 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with sustained winds of 50mph and a central pressure of 997mb (estimated). Shear is pretty low, and Andres looks quite impressive on satellite imagery. I give it a 60% chance of becoming a marginal hurricane over the next few days. It is expected to brush and possibly directly strike Mexico, so tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are up. Baja California may also be impacted by Andres before it turns east out to sea and dissipates.

In the Atlantic basin there's nothing going on which looks as if it might develop into a tropical cyclone, so we may easily see our first named storm (Ana) in July or August this year. 2009 Atlantic season may be less active than what we've seen in other years. SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) are quite low and right now it would seem an El Nino is likely to develop in the coming months. This means a less busy Atlantic season and a more busy East Pacific season, although the East Pacific has had a very slow start. (Andres is the latest named storm formation since reliable Pacific Hurricane Season records began in the 1970s.)

Any comments are more than welcome.

Tropical Depression #1-E forms in the East Pacific (Please Comment!)

The first tropical depression of the East Pacific Hurricane Season has just formed this morning., about 370 miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. It is expected to move north and eventually north-northeast and strike the Mexican coast late Friday or early Saturday. It has time enough to intensify before then, and it is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. If this occurs, then 2009 will beat 1994 for the latest naming of the first tropical cyclone of the season. (In 1994, the first storm was named early on June 19, here Tropical Depression #1-E is expected to become a named storm on the same day but several hours later).

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the Pacific Coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo southward to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marias. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within the next 36 hours.

It has been very hot here in Texas. We are seeing temperatures typical of July and August yet it is only June. Will the remnants of Tropical Depression #1-E bring any rain? We'll see. Right now that doesn't seem very likely.

There is also another disturbance in the East Pacific southwest of where TD#1-E is at. Right now the National Hurricane Center doesn't think it will do much, but it has a chance of developing into a tropical depression.

More later.

Bolivar Today

I went to Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula recently and severe damage can still be seen, particularly on the Bolivar, even now, months after the storm hit land. I took 50 pictures and a video of the damage on the Bolivar and have uploaded them to the site, along with a brief account of my trip. To see the amazing damage Ike inflicted still visible even today, click here.

Invest 92L, the non-tropical system in the far northeast Atlantic, is gone now and the tropics are currently quiet.

ExplosiveDeepening will closely watch anything showing signs of developing into a tropical cyclone.

All comments will be appreciated.

Second day of hurricane season, non-tropical system near Azores

Hurricane season began yesterday and today there is a non-tropical system way out in the northeast Atlantic near the Azores. It's not likely to develop; waters are much too cool for one thing. I give it a less than 10% chance of becoming anything.

I had some problems with the Hurricane Ike damage video I was planning uploading today. Hopefully I'll have it up tomorrow along with a bunch of pictures and an article detailing my trip to the Bolivar Peninsula and what I saw.

Any comments will be appreciated.

June 1st, 2009

Please Comment!

Today is June 1st, the first day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season and marking its beginning.

Already we have seen a tropical system in the Atlantic Ocean (Tropical Depression #1) and it is expected that between 8 and 17 more will form before the season ends on November 30th. ExplosiveDeepening is currently forecasting 14 named storms to form during the next six months in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico, with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 attaining Category 3 or greater status with wind speeds of at least 115mph.

To show a hurricane's power and it's long-lasting effects, I am planning to upload an article tomorrow about my visit to Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula earlier this year, with a video and multiple pictures showing the damage wrought by Hurricane Ike, over six months after the event. Look for it on the ExplosiveDeepening blog and the "About Hurricanes" page.

I am expecting to post another blog entry tomorrow along with the Hurricane Ike damage article and video, detailing what can be expected for both the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons and other relevant information.

Comments welcome.