Sunday, June 28, 2009

More on 93L...

Invest 93L is less organized this morning as it's low-level circulation center (separated from what little convection remains) moves across the Yucatan Peninsula. Once it moves west to northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico wind shear is expected to increase, making it less likely for 93L to even become a tropical depression, let alone a tropical storm or weak hurricane. I give it a 5-10% chance of development.

There are some waves coming off Africa (as is typical). The GFS model has been developing a closed low out of one of these though no chance of that anymore. Still, it's an indicator that the Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and the western coast of Africa is becoming more favorable for development of tropical systems.

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