Tropical Storm Andres

Sorry for the lack of updates recently. My latest blog entry didn't post for some reason.

Tropical Depression #1-E never became a tropical storm and didn't provide Texas some relief from the heat either. However, another tropical disturbance has formed into Tropical Storm Andres. It is currently located about 120 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with sustained winds of 50mph and a central pressure of 997mb (estimated). Shear is pretty low, and Andres looks quite impressive on satellite imagery. I give it a 60% chance of becoming a marginal hurricane over the next few days. It is expected to brush and possibly directly strike Mexico, so tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are up. Baja California may also be impacted by Andres before it turns east out to sea and dissipates.

In the Atlantic basin there's nothing going on which looks as if it might develop into a tropical cyclone, so we may easily see our first named storm (Ana) in July or August this year. 2009 Atlantic season may be less active than what we've seen in other years. SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) are quite low and right now it would seem an El Nino is likely to develop in the coming months. This means a less busy Atlantic season and a more busy East Pacific season, although the East Pacific has had a very slow start. (Andres is the latest named storm formation since reliable Pacific Hurricane Season records began in the 1970s.)

Any comments are more than welcome.