Sorry for the lack of updating recently - this one will be short as well. There is an extremely dangerous hurricane in the east Pacific right now off Mexico; Jimena is a Category 4/5 borderline system with winds around 155mph and it may have been stronger yesterday (when recon was not around to check it out). Jimena is expected to make landfall on Baja California shortly as a Category 4 hurricane, cross the Gulf of California and hit mainland Mexico, and then move into the United States as a remnant low pressure area. Arizona can expect some rains, but it is Mexico that will see the devastation and destruction typical of an intense hurricane.
Invest 94L near the Lesser Antilles is beginning to show signs of developing into a tropical depression, despite increasing shear. I give it a 80% chance of eventually becoming our next depression.
More later.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Tropical Storm Danny and Invest 94L
Danny has formed in the western Atlantic a few days ago from a tropical wave. It is currently located east of the Bahamas and looks as if it will mirror Bill's track to some degree. It is very disorganized, and I'm not seeing much banding or convection, and it's center is exposed. Winds are only around 45mph, and it may not even be a tropical storm any longer. Still, the environment is expected to become more favorable and it may strengthen over the next day or two, but then shear is expected to rise so beyond 48 hours I don't see much intensification and it's expected to become extratropical shortly thereafter. It's unlikely right now Danny will become a hurricane.
Still, a tropical storm watch is up for parts of North Carolina, and Danny may brush Cape Cod before it makes its expected landfall on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. It shouldn't be as bad as Bill for the Canadian Maritimes however.
We're also watching Invest 94L in the eastern Atlantic near Cape Verde. I give it a 60% chance of developing into a depression over the next few days. It may track further west too (the dynamical models indicate the high pressure ridge to its north will build), so it's definitely one to watch.
Please comment.
Still, a tropical storm watch is up for parts of North Carolina, and Danny may brush Cape Cod before it makes its expected landfall on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. It shouldn't be as bad as Bill for the Canadian Maritimes however.
We're also watching Invest 94L in the eastern Atlantic near Cape Verde. I give it a 60% chance of developing into a depression over the next few days. It may track further west too (the dynamical models indicate the high pressure ridge to its north will build), so it's definitely one to watch.
Please comment.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Bill extratropical, Ignacio in the Pacific, Invest 92L developing
Quick update tonight.
Bill recurved north, missing Bermuda, New England and Nova Scotia, weakening as it went. It hit Newfoundland earlier today as a Category 1 storm, and has caused one death (a 7-year-old child) due to it's strong surf.
Now we have another disturbance to track in the Atlantic, Invest 92L near the Leeward Islands which has a medium (30-50%) chance of developing according to the NHC. We'll watch that one closely.
We also have Tropical Storm Ignacio in the eastern Pacific. It developed very recently from a depression, but is a fish-spinner so no threat to land from that one.
Keep checking back at explosivedeepening.net for the latest on tropical weather!
Bill recurved north, missing Bermuda, New England and Nova Scotia, weakening as it went. It hit Newfoundland earlier today as a Category 1 storm, and has caused one death (a 7-year-old child) due to it's strong surf.
Now we have another disturbance to track in the Atlantic, Invest 92L near the Leeward Islands which has a medium (30-50%) chance of developing according to the NHC. We'll watch that one closely.
We also have Tropical Storm Ignacio in the eastern Pacific. It developed very recently from a depression, but is a fish-spinner so no threat to land from that one.
Keep checking back at explosivedeepening.net for the latest on tropical weather!
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Category 4 Hurricane Bill churning out in the open Atlantic
Bill has strengthened rapidly into a potentially dangerous Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Maximum sustained winds are right now around 135mph, with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure is 945mb.
Bill is currently well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands and fortunately there's no chance of it hitting there. However, some high surf can be expected in the islands of the Caribbean as this powerful cyclone passes to the north. Bill looks very impressive on satellite imagery; a classic Cape Verde hurricane taking a typical recurving path. Right now Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes really want to watch out for Bill, as the storm is expected to pass near or make a direct hit on either or both locations. It is unlikely to impact in the U.S. in any major way.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic nothing of note is going on, so after Bill we may have a quiet time for a little while. Remember the peak of Atlantic season is mid-September. In an El Nino year like this one, the season will probably shut down quick - it's very possible we won't get any named storms after September.
Any comments are more than welcome.
Bill is currently well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands and fortunately there's no chance of it hitting there. However, some high surf can be expected in the islands of the Caribbean as this powerful cyclone passes to the north. Bill looks very impressive on satellite imagery; a classic Cape Verde hurricane taking a typical recurving path. Right now Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes really want to watch out for Bill, as the storm is expected to pass near or make a direct hit on either or both locations. It is unlikely to impact in the U.S. in any major way.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic nothing of note is going on, so after Bill we may have a quiet time for a little while. Remember the peak of Atlantic season is mid-September. In an El Nino year like this one, the season will probably shut down quick - it's very possible we won't get any named storms after September.
Any comments are more than welcome.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Category 2 Hurricane Bill moving west-northwest, Ana and Claudette dissipate
Quick update tonight.
Bill has strengthened into a hurricane, and quite a powerful one at that, with 100mph sustained winds, making it a Category 2 storm. It is currently moving west-northwest and is then expected to turn further north. Recently the models have begun to shift west indicating Bill will miss the weakness in the high pressure ridge to its north. However, a trough near the East Coast should ensure recurvature at some point. Bill is far enough west and south to make it likely it will affect land in some way, whether that be Bermuda, the U.S. Northeast or the Canadian Maritimes is of course not certain. However all of these places have to watch out for Bill, as it is likely to become a major hurricane tomorrow. (Some of the models even have it near Category 5 status while out at sea). It is also a large hurricane - tropical storm force winds extend 150 miles out from the center.
Ana has degenerated into an open wave as expected, but it will still cause some bad weather for Hispaniola. This time it is likely gone for good.
Claudette made landfall on the Florida panhandle last night and quickly weakened. Its last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center a while ago. Its remnants could still cause some rain and wind however as it moves inland.
Guillermo has moved into the Central Pacific and has weakened to a tropical storm.
More later.
Bill has strengthened into a hurricane, and quite a powerful one at that, with 100mph sustained winds, making it a Category 2 storm. It is currently moving west-northwest and is then expected to turn further north. Recently the models have begun to shift west indicating Bill will miss the weakness in the high pressure ridge to its north. However, a trough near the East Coast should ensure recurvature at some point. Bill is far enough west and south to make it likely it will affect land in some way, whether that be Bermuda, the U.S. Northeast or the Canadian Maritimes is of course not certain. However all of these places have to watch out for Bill, as it is likely to become a major hurricane tomorrow. (Some of the models even have it near Category 5 status while out at sea). It is also a large hurricane - tropical storm force winds extend 150 miles out from the center.
Ana has degenerated into an open wave as expected, but it will still cause some bad weather for Hispaniola. This time it is likely gone for good.
Claudette made landfall on the Florida panhandle last night and quickly weakened. Its last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center a while ago. Its remnants could still cause some rain and wind however as it moves inland.
Guillermo has moved into the Central Pacific and has weakened to a tropical storm.
More later.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Ana dying, Bill strengthening, Claudette striking land
Turned out I was wrong last night. Invest 91L quickly developed into a tropical depression and then Tropical Storm Claudette. It currently has 50mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 1008mb, and is very close to making landfall on the Florida panhandle. (Should do so tonight). It is currently located 25 miles west of Panama City.
It is beginning to look a bit ragged though ("This thing is beginning to look pathetic" according to Jim Cantore), and it's center became exposed for a while a bit back. Convection remains mostly on the eastern side, and Claudette is very small. A very small portion of the beach is to see tropical storm winds. So overall some nasty weather, a bit of rain and wind, but not much more, for the Florida panhandle.
Ana has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves over the Leeward Islands. Convection is bursting a bit now, but it doesn't seem to have much of a closed circulation, and indeed it may be declared a tropical wave tomorrow. Very few dynamical models indicate any strengthening whatsoever. Even if Ana somehow makes a comeback, which is incredibly unlikely, then it's probable that Hispaniola and it's mountains will finish off the job and shred what's left of Ana.
Bill is much better organized now, very close to hurricane strength, and is huge as well. (TS winds up to 140 miles from the center). I'm expecting a hurricane with an eye tomorrow morning and a Category 3 hurricane by the end of the day, and maybe further intensification after that. Bill is accelerating as well in it's forward motion, so it just might miss the weakness in the high pressure ridge to it's north. For this reason, the Caribbean islands still want to watch it. Bermuda, Northeastern U.S. and ultimately Atlantic Canada may be threatened by Bill eventually too. It's not set in stone Bill will be a fish-spinner.
It is beginning to look a bit ragged though ("This thing is beginning to look pathetic" according to Jim Cantore), and it's center became exposed for a while a bit back. Convection remains mostly on the eastern side, and Claudette is very small. A very small portion of the beach is to see tropical storm winds. So overall some nasty weather, a bit of rain and wind, but not much more, for the Florida panhandle.
Ana has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves over the Leeward Islands. Convection is bursting a bit now, but it doesn't seem to have much of a closed circulation, and indeed it may be declared a tropical wave tomorrow. Very few dynamical models indicate any strengthening whatsoever. Even if Ana somehow makes a comeback, which is incredibly unlikely, then it's probable that Hispaniola and it's mountains will finish off the job and shred what's left of Ana.
Bill is much better organized now, very close to hurricane strength, and is huge as well. (TS winds up to 140 miles from the center). I'm expecting a hurricane with an eye tomorrow morning and a Category 3 hurricane by the end of the day, and maybe further intensification after that. Bill is accelerating as well in it's forward motion, so it just might miss the weakness in the high pressure ridge to it's north. For this reason, the Caribbean islands still want to watch it. Bermuda, Northeastern U.S. and ultimately Atlantic Canada may be threatened by Bill eventually too. It's not set in stone Bill will be a fish-spinner.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Ana, Bill, 91L, Guillermo and another wave off Africa
The tropics are definitely heating up right now. Tropical Depression #2 regenerated and strengthened into Tropical Storm Ana, the first named cyclone of the Atlantic season. It is currently having some problems. Although shear is light, it is racing to the west so fast that it's low-level circulation is beginning to outrun the convection. Thus it is unlikely to strengthen too much. It is expected to move over the Leeward Islands on Monday and then cross Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba before either moving into the western Gulf of Mexico or into Florida. I personally think it won't be in good enough shape to survive an encounter with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, and so dissipation is quite possible.;
Tropical Depression #3 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Bill, and currently has 40mph winds and a 1004mb central pressure (estimated). Bill is quite far south and it is huge, and now it's generating plenty of convection near it's inner core too, something it had not done until recently. The models indicate it could become a powerful Category 3+ hurricane too in about five days time. The models also forecast Bill to recurve and it may become a fish-spinner, missing the Lesser Antilles to the north and spinning out into the deep ocean. That would be unusual for August though, especially considering the fact Bill is quite deep in the tropics, and I'd be surprised if it didn't hit the islands of the Caribbean. We have to watch Bill very closely.
Invest 91L has developed off Florida in the western Gulf. Right now it's not too likely to become much. I'm giving it a 20% chance of developing into a depression. I think the more likely candidate for tropical development is another wave which has emerged off the coast of Africa. This one probably won't develop as quickly as Bill if it does at all but it is something to watch as it may go further south than Bill.
Guillermo in the eastern Pacific briefly became a Category 3 hurricane but has since weakened. It's expected to pass well north of Hawaii too so it's no longer much of a threat.
More later.
Tropical Depression #3 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Bill, and currently has 40mph winds and a 1004mb central pressure (estimated). Bill is quite far south and it is huge, and now it's generating plenty of convection near it's inner core too, something it had not done until recently. The models indicate it could become a powerful Category 3+ hurricane too in about five days time. The models also forecast Bill to recurve and it may become a fish-spinner, missing the Lesser Antilles to the north and spinning out into the deep ocean. That would be unusual for August though, especially considering the fact Bill is quite deep in the tropics, and I'd be surprised if it didn't hit the islands of the Caribbean. We have to watch Bill very closely.
Invest 91L has developed off Florida in the western Gulf. Right now it's not too likely to become much. I'm giving it a 20% chance of developing into a depression. I think the more likely candidate for tropical development is another wave which has emerged off the coast of Africa. This one probably won't develop as quickly as Bill if it does at all but it is something to watch as it may go further south than Bill.
Guillermo in the eastern Pacific briefly became a Category 3 hurricane but has since weakened. It's expected to pass well north of Hawaii too so it's no longer much of a threat.
More later.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Tropical Depression #2 dissipating, Tropical Depression #3 on the way?
My apologies for the sporadic updating. Now that the Atlantic is heating up in a major way you can expect much more frequent updates.
Tropical Depression #2 formed in the far eastern Atlantic but a combination of dry, stable air to it's north and moderate wind shear weakened the system and the National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on the system just a few hours ago. It has decayed into a remnant low pressure area and regeneration is not expected.
There's also another disturbance near Hispaniola and the Bahamas but it doesn't look like it will develop.
Of much more interest is Invest 90L, a large tropical wave with plenty of convection in it's outer bands near the Cape Verde islands. This has a high chance (I estimate around 90%) of developing into our next depression. The computer models forecast it not to be impacted as severely by the dry air as TD#2, and in fact they are hinting it may become a major hurricane. It's forecasted to head towards the Leeward Islands but it's still a long way off and we have plenty of time to track it.
Felicia in the east Pacific dissipated just as it hit Hawaii. It caused no real damage there. It was stripped of convection by shear by the time it arrived.
Another storm, Guillermo, has formed in the Pacific and it may also impact Hawaii in about a week. It could easily intensify into a hurricane so we'll watch that one closely.
I expect to post a much more detailed blog post tomorrow morning. Comments are more than welcome. : - )
Tropical Depression #2 formed in the far eastern Atlantic but a combination of dry, stable air to it's north and moderate wind shear weakened the system and the National Hurricane Center issued its last advisory on the system just a few hours ago. It has decayed into a remnant low pressure area and regeneration is not expected.
There's also another disturbance near Hispaniola and the Bahamas but it doesn't look like it will develop.
Of much more interest is Invest 90L, a large tropical wave with plenty of convection in it's outer bands near the Cape Verde islands. This has a high chance (I estimate around 90%) of developing into our next depression. The computer models forecast it not to be impacted as severely by the dry air as TD#2, and in fact they are hinting it may become a major hurricane. It's forecasted to head towards the Leeward Islands but it's still a long way off and we have plenty of time to track it.
Felicia in the east Pacific dissipated just as it hit Hawaii. It caused no real damage there. It was stripped of convection by shear by the time it arrived.
Another storm, Guillermo, has formed in the Pacific and it may also impact Hawaii in about a week. It could easily intensify into a hurricane so we'll watch that one closely.
I expect to post a much more detailed blog post tomorrow morning. Comments are more than welcome. : - )
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Twin storms in the Pacific, Quiet Atlantic
First of all, sorry for the long absence. This was due to several internet problems. Fortunately, the Atlantic basin has remained mostly quiet, and we still have had no named storm. It has been 17 years since we've had to wait this long for our first named storm, and with the computer models forecasting no development in the Atlantic for a while we may have to wait even longer before Tropical Storm Ana finally arrives on the scene. The inactivity of the Atlantic can be attributed to current El Nino conditions, which typically results in less storms in the Atlantic and more in the Pacific. The Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and the western coast of Africa is full of dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert. Anything which tried to develop there right now would be "choked" out of existence very quickly.
Still, I'm expecting at least one storm to develop in the Atlantic before the end of August, and a total of between 10 and 13 named storms is likely this year in the Atlantic basin.
In the East Pacific there are two storms, very close to each other. One is Enrique, which is a tropical storm that isn't likely to amount to much, although it seems to be trying to develop an eyewall. Intensification is being limited by Felicia, to it's southwest, which has impressively strengthened overnight and has powered up to a major hurricane. Dvorak satellite estimates indicate it is now a Category 4 hurricane packing sustained winds of 125 knots (145 mph) with a central pressure of 941mb. Felicia now has a "pinwheel eye" (named such due to the appearance of clouds in it's eye - it's a sign of a powerful hurricane), but it is beginning to lose some convection in it's northwestern quadrant, and it will be moving into cooler waters tonight as it tracks northwest and eventually west, and so gradual weakening is expected over the coming days. What's interesting is that it is expected to impact Hawaii in some form later on, likely in five or six days time. By this time, however, it is forecasted to be a tropical depression. Still, the islands may get some bad weather from this system.
More later.
Still, I'm expecting at least one storm to develop in the Atlantic before the end of August, and a total of between 10 and 13 named storms is likely this year in the Atlantic basin.
In the East Pacific there are two storms, very close to each other. One is Enrique, which is a tropical storm that isn't likely to amount to much, although it seems to be trying to develop an eyewall. Intensification is being limited by Felicia, to it's southwest, which has impressively strengthened overnight and has powered up to a major hurricane. Dvorak satellite estimates indicate it is now a Category 4 hurricane packing sustained winds of 125 knots (145 mph) with a central pressure of 941mb. Felicia now has a "pinwheel eye" (named such due to the appearance of clouds in it's eye - it's a sign of a powerful hurricane), but it is beginning to lose some convection in it's northwestern quadrant, and it will be moving into cooler waters tonight as it tracks northwest and eventually west, and so gradual weakening is expected over the coming days. What's interesting is that it is expected to impact Hawaii in some form later on, likely in five or six days time. By this time, however, it is forecasted to be a tropical depression. Still, the islands may get some bad weather from this system.
More later.
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