Ana, Bill, 91L, Guillermo and another wave off Africa

The tropics are definitely heating up right now. Tropical Depression #2 regenerated and strengthened into Tropical Storm Ana, the first named cyclone of the Atlantic season. It is currently having some problems. Although shear is light, it is racing to the west so fast that it's low-level circulation is beginning to outrun the convection. Thus it is unlikely to strengthen too much. It is expected to move over the Leeward Islands on Monday and then cross Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba before either moving into the western Gulf of Mexico or into Florida. I personally think it won't be in good enough shape to survive an encounter with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba, and so dissipation is quite possible.;

Tropical Depression #3 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Bill, and currently has 40mph winds and a 1004mb central pressure (estimated). Bill is quite far south and it is huge, and now it's generating plenty of convection near it's inner core too, something it had not done until recently. The models indicate it could become a powerful Category 3+ hurricane too in about five days time. The models also forecast Bill to recurve and it may become a fish-spinner, missing the Lesser Antilles to the north and spinning out into the deep ocean. That would be unusual for August though, especially considering the fact Bill is quite deep in the tropics, and I'd be surprised if it didn't hit the islands of the Caribbean. We have to watch Bill very closely.

Invest 91L has developed off Florida in the western Gulf. Right now it's not too likely to become much. I'm giving it a 20% chance of developing into a depression. I think the more likely candidate for tropical development is another wave which has emerged off the coast of Africa. This one probably won't develop as quickly as Bill if it does at all but it is something to watch as it may go further south than Bill.

Guillermo in the eastern Pacific briefly became a Category 3 hurricane but has since weakened. It's expected to pass well north of Hawaii too so it's no longer much of a threat.

More later.