Sunday, August 16, 2009

Ana dying, Bill strengthening, Claudette striking land

Turned out I was wrong last night. Invest 91L quickly developed into a tropical depression and then Tropical Storm Claudette. It currently has 50mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 1008mb, and is very close to making landfall on the Florida panhandle. (Should do so tonight). It is currently located 25 miles west of Panama City.

It is beginning to look a bit ragged though ("This thing is beginning to look pathetic" according to Jim Cantore), and it's center became exposed for a while a bit back. Convection remains mostly on the eastern side, and Claudette is very small. A very small portion of the beach is to see tropical storm winds. So overall some nasty weather, a bit of rain and wind, but not much more, for the Florida panhandle.

Ana has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves over the Leeward Islands. Convection is bursting a bit now, but it doesn't seem to have much of a closed circulation, and indeed it may be declared a tropical wave tomorrow. Very few dynamical models indicate any strengthening whatsoever. Even if Ana somehow makes a comeback, which is incredibly unlikely, then it's probable that Hispaniola and it's mountains will finish off the job and shred what's left of Ana.

Bill is much better organized now, very close to hurricane strength, and is huge as well. (TS winds up to 140 miles from the center). I'm expecting a hurricane with an eye tomorrow morning and a Category 3 hurricane by the end of the day, and maybe further intensification after that. Bill is accelerating as well in it's forward motion, so it just might miss the weakness in the high pressure ridge to it's north. For this reason, the Caribbean islands still want to watch it. Bermuda, Northeastern U.S. and ultimately Atlantic Canada may be threatened by Bill eventually too. It's not set in stone Bill will be a fish-spinner.

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