Thursday, August 27, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny and Invest 94L

Danny has formed in the western Atlantic a few days ago from a tropical wave. It is currently located east of the Bahamas and looks as if it will mirror Bill's track to some degree. It is very disorganized, and I'm not seeing much banding or convection, and it's center is exposed. Winds are only around 45mph, and it may not even be a tropical storm any longer. Still, the environment is expected to become more favorable and it may strengthen over the next day or two, but then shear is expected to rise so beyond 48 hours I don't see much intensification and it's expected to become extratropical shortly thereafter. It's unlikely right now Danny will become a hurricane.

Still, a tropical storm watch is up for parts of North Carolina, and Danny may brush Cape Cod before it makes its expected landfall on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. It shouldn't be as bad as Bill for the Canadian Maritimes however.

We're also watching Invest 94L in the eastern Atlantic near Cape Verde. I give it a 60% chance of developing into a depression over the next few days. It may track further west too (the dynamical models indicate the high pressure ridge to its north will build), so it's definitely one to watch.

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