Very quick update tonight. Tropical Storm Fred has just formed near the Cape Verde islands. It is quite far south but is expected to be a fish-spinner anyway, and probably not become a hurricane. It's something to track nevertheless.
Tropical Storm Linda has also formed out in the eastern Pacific. No threat to land from that one either.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Fred on the horizon?
Invest 95L is gone, now just a naked swirl out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, torn apart by wind shear. However, a very impressive wave now known as Invest 96L has came off Africa and its convection at such an early stage is quite incredible. Right now we need to see whether this amazing convection persists or not. I give it an 80% chance of developing into our next tropical depression over the next few days; indeed I would not be surprised to see it develop into our next depression tomorrow.
There is also a disturbance way out in the eastern Pacific which also has a high chance of developing over the next few days.
More tomorrow.
There is also a disturbance way out in the eastern Pacific which also has a high chance of developing over the next few days.
More tomorrow.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Last advisory issued on Erika
Erika is now in the eastern Pacific, and has degenerated into a remnant low as it moves into high shear. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the system.
Jimena has also dissipated after causing damage in Baja California.
With all the systems we were tracking gone, we now look to the east, to a wave near the Cape Verde islands with a small chance (<30%) of developing into something over the next few days.
It looks like the Atlantic will turn out to be a fairly inactive season. 10 named storms in total, or around that, seems likely as of now.
We'll wait and see.
Jimena has also dissipated after causing damage in Baja California.
With all the systems we were tracking gone, we now look to the east, to a wave near the Cape Verde islands with a small chance (<30%) of developing into something over the next few days.
It looks like the Atlantic will turn out to be a fairly inactive season. 10 named storms in total, or around that, seems likely as of now.
We'll wait and see.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Jimena inland Baja California, Erika struggling to survive
Jimena made landfall this morning, but it missed Cabo San Lucas to the north. It was a Category 2 hurricane with 100mph winds, and has since weakened to a tropical storm inland. It has decoupled, it's low level center forecasted to move to the west into the Pacific and it's upper center forecasted to move to the northeast into mainland Mexico. Damage reports are still coming in, and we'll have more on that later.
Tropical Storm Erika has formed from Invest 94L in the Atlantic basin near the Leeward Islands. It is very poorly organized with multiple swirls. It'll have to reform it's main center under the circulation or turn into a trough and thus no longer be classified as a tropical cyclone. Even if it does survive for the next day or two, the mountains of Hispaniola which it is expected to interact with and increasing wind shear should cause it to dissipate within five days.
Tropical Storm Erika has formed from Invest 94L in the Atlantic basin near the Leeward Islands. It is very poorly organized with multiple swirls. It'll have to reform it's main center under the circulation or turn into a trough and thus no longer be classified as a tropical cyclone. Even if it does survive for the next day or two, the mountains of Hispaniola which it is expected to interact with and increasing wind shear should cause it to dissipate within five days.
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