Hurricane Season is Over

Both Atlantic and east Pacific hurricane seasons ended yesterday. The Atlantic was a quiet season, with only two major hurricanes, Bill and Fred, and not much in the way of damage at all. The East Pacific was much more active however, and the most powerful hurricane of the season was Rick, which reached 180mph wind speeds and a 905mb central pressure, making it the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the eastern Pacific. Fortunately it weakened to a tropical storm before hitting land, but it was still a very impressive storm. We'll see what 2010 brings.

All comments are more than welcome.

End of Hurricane Season Soon

Both Atlantic and east Pacific hurricane seasons end on November 30 - the day after tomorrow. The Atlantic was quiet this year, and no storms ever threatened Texas. I should do a season summary on November 30.

However, Rick in the Pacific was an amazing system, a Category 5 that eventually hit Mexico as a tropical storm. One of the strongest storms ever in the east Pacific.

Comments welcome.

Tropical Storm Fred forms in far eastern Atlantic

Very quick update tonight. Tropical Storm Fred has just formed near the Cape Verde islands. It is quite far south but is expected to be a fish-spinner anyway, and probably not become a hurricane. It's something to track nevertheless.

Tropical Storm Linda has also formed out in the eastern Pacific. No threat to land from that one either.

Fred on the horizon?

Invest 95L is gone, now just a naked swirl out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, torn apart by wind shear. However, a very impressive wave now known as Invest 96L has came off Africa and its convection at such an early stage is quite incredible. Right now we need to see whether this amazing convection persists or not. I give it an 80% chance of developing into our next tropical depression over the next few days; indeed I would not be surprised to see it develop into our next depression tomorrow.

There is also a disturbance way out in the eastern Pacific which also has a high chance of developing over the next few days.

More tomorrow.

Last advisory issued on Erika

Erika is now in the eastern Pacific, and has degenerated into a remnant low as it moves into high shear. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the system.

Jimena has also dissipated after causing damage in Baja California.

With all the systems we were tracking gone, we now look to the east, to a wave near the Cape Verde islands with a small chance (<30%) of developing into something over the next few days.

It looks like the Atlantic will turn out to be a fairly inactive season. 10 named storms in total, or around that, seems likely as of now.

We'll wait and see.

Jimena inland Baja California, Erika struggling to survive

Jimena made landfall this morning, but it missed Cabo San Lucas to the north. It was a Category 2 hurricane with 100mph winds, and has since weakened to a tropical storm inland. It has decoupled, it's low level center forecasted to move to the west into the Pacific and it's upper center forecasted to move to the northeast into mainland Mexico. Damage reports are still coming in, and we'll have more on that later.

Tropical Storm Erika has formed from Invest 94L in the Atlantic basin near the Leeward Islands. It is very poorly organized with multiple swirls. It'll have to reform it's main center under the circulation or turn into a trough and thus no longer be classified as a tropical cyclone. Even if it does survive for the next day or two, the mountains of Hispaniola which it is expected to interact with and increasing wind shear should cause it to dissipate within five days.

Sorry for the lack of updating recently - this one will be short as well. There is an extremely dangerous hurricane in the east Pacific right now off Mexico; Jimena is a Category 4/5 borderline system with winds around 155mph and it may have been stronger yesterday (when recon was not around to check it out). Jimena is expected to make landfall on Baja California shortly as a Category 4 hurricane, cross the Gulf of California and hit mainland Mexico, and then move into the United States as a remnant low pressure area. Arizona can expect some rains, but it is Mexico that will see the devastation and destruction typical of an intense hurricane.

Invest 94L near the Lesser Antilles is beginning to show signs of developing into a tropical depression, despite increasing shear. I give it a 80% chance of eventually becoming our next depression.

More later.